Still, there are plenty of civilian investors who have done well buying value stocks and holding for the long run. But wouldn’t you expect a wide distribution of luck in any gambling arena? If every investor picked stocks entirely randomly, you would still produce a good number of Warren Buffetts entirely by chance. And our [...]
Archive for December, 2008
Scott Adams on survivor bias
Posted in biases on December 23, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
The Apple Product Prediction Scam
Posted in biases on December 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
One of my least favorite parts of the tech business is the army of predictors of future Apple products. It’s a great game because anyone can play from professional analyst firm, to financial news reporters or random bloggers and since there are so many people playing, the game is rife with survivor bias. So how [...]
